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Market Commentary

Tuesday: 01/6/09 11:37 AM EST :
Intel-ligence Predicts a Bad Day at the Office.

By Frank Bocchino

Psst! Can you keep a secret? Based upon our intelligence, we're feeling confident and telling you to expect a bad day. Not exactly weapons of mass destructions, but the ADP National Employment dropped the bomb that the private sector lost 693,000 jobs in December -- more than the 476,000 private-sector jobs lost in November. A separate firm, Challenger, Gray and Christmas announced job cuts in December fell 8.4% from a month earlier. And Alcoa, a Dow component, said late yesterday it will cut 13,500 jobs, or 13% of its global workforce. But the real "intel-ligence" comes from technology market heavyweight and soothsayer-of-sorts Intel Corp., the Santa Clara-based chip maker. Intel expects fourth-quarter revenue to fall 23% from Q4 2007, pointing to ongoing weak demand and inventory reductions by computer makers.

Stock index futures sank further, hitting session lows on Wednesday as Intel warned about its outlook, adding to worries about the deepening economic slump. Intel's gloom drags Nasdaq futures down 22.50 points. Dow futures down 126 points, while S&P 500 futures slid 14.30 points. Yields on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae mortgage bonds fell to record lows, dragged down by their declining spreads relative to government notes after the Federal Reserve began a $500 billion program to buy the bonds. Gold fell early today as well.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that mortgage application activity index fell for the first week in four, dropping 8.2% to 1,143.8 in the week that ended January 2. But a week earlier, it had hit a five-year high. But now mortgage news dominates the media more than an O.J. Simpson trial and savvy borrowers have held back signing on the dotted line in anticipation of lower rates. The Fed's program to purchase up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities will hopefully succeed at lowering rates lenders charge to consumers. The Fed began its purchases on Monday, fueling a sharp drop in premiums that investors demand to own the bonds, and by extension, a probable drop in mortgage rates this week, analysts said.

According to an MBA survey, fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.07% in the week, up from 5.03% the prior week.

If over the past few weeks finding positive economic has been tough, today it might feel like rocket science, but we always do our best to find our silver lining. And today the award goes to Private National Mortgage Acceptance Co. (PennyMac). PennyMac company formed to buy troubled mortgages that funds managed by its affiliates bought $558 million of home loans from the FDIC. The loans were formerly assets of First National Bank of Nevada, which the FDIC closed earlier this year when it became the firm's receiver.

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